Waa maxay sababta Tungsten Carbide iyo Cobalt budada ah ay kor ugu kaceen qiimaha sanadkan?

I. Cobalt Powder Frenzy: DRC Dhoofinta Joojinta + Tamarta Cusub ee Caalamiga ah

1. DRC waxay jartay 80% Global Cobalt Supply

Jamhuuriyadda Dimuqraadiga ah ee Kongo (DRC) sahayda78% Cobalt-ka adduunka. Bishii Febraayo 2025, waxay si lama filaan ah ugu dhawaaqday a4-bilood joojinta dhoofinta alaabta ceeriin ee cobalt, hoos u dhigaya sahayda cobalt-ka caalamiga ah 26% (oo u dhiganta 30,000 - ton yaraan bishiiba). Dhoola-tuuriyeyaasha caalamiga ah waxay la kulmeen "dhibaatada alaabta ceeriin," iyada oo heerarka hawlgalku uu hoos ugu dhacay 58%. Shirkadaha yaryar - ilaa - ganacsiyada dhexdhexaadka ah xitaa waa la xiray, riixaya budada kobaltqiimaha dhibcaha ayaa kor u kacay ¥3,500/ton hal bil gudaheed- boodhka ugu weyn tan iyo 2024.

2. Tamarta Cusub iyo Alaabta 3C waxay kiciyaan Cobalt Scramble, kaydka daadinta

Iibka baabuurta tamarta cusub ee caalamiga ah ayaa lagu wadaa inuu kordho 25% sanadka 2025. Dhanka kale,baytariyada lithium ternary (ee EVs) iyo kobalt - baytariyada acid (loogu talagalay 3C) baytariyadaayaa kor u qaadaya baahida cobalt, taasoo kor u dhaaftay 150,000 oo tan. Mar ku filan 45 maalmood, hadda kaydka budada kobaltkaliya 28 maalmood- Sahayda - Baahida isu dheelitir la'aanta taas oo ah qiimaha sare u kaca.

3. Kaydinta iyo Qandaraasyada Muddada dheer waxay abuuraan Qiimo Dhimasho ah

Mamnuucidda dhoofinta DRC waxay dhalisay argagax. Ganacsatadu waxay kaydiyeen in ka badan 30% ee saadka, halka ay ku kaxeeyeen qiimihiisu kor u kacay 12%. Si looga fogaado shoog mustaqbalka, batteriga sameeyala saxiixay heshiisyo muddo dheer ah 3 bilood ka hor, samaynta qiimaha muddada dheer 8% ka sarreeya booska. Tani waxay abuurtay wareeg:kor u kaca qiimaha → kaydin badan → xitaa qiimo sare.

II. Kor u kaca Tungsten Carbide: Miinooyinka Caalamiga ah ee Adag + Waaxaha Soo Koraya

1. Kootada Goynta iyo Xiritaanka Curyaaminta Supply Tungsten

In ka badan 60% tungstenka dunidu waxay ka yimaadaan hal gobol oo muhiim ah. Sannadkii 2025, kootada macdanta wareega ee wareega koowaad ayaa la jaray 6.45%, iyo 30% miinooyinka yaryar ayaa la xidhay sababo la xidhiidha xeerar adag oo deegaanka ah. Qiimaha xooga saarista tungsten madow (wax cayriin)ku dhuftay ¥172,000/ton(Rikoor sare). Bishii Juun, qiimaha budada carbide tungsten ayaa kor u kacay¥364/kg.

2. Sawir-qaadista, Difaaca, iyo Diyaaradaha aan duuliyaha lahayn ee Drones-ka ayaa wada Baahida Qaraxyada

Tungsten carbide hadda ma aha oo kaliya in la gooyo qalabka!Fiilooyinka tungsten Photovoltaic (oo leh> 14% dhexgalka caalamiga ah)kor ayey u kacayaan, iyadoo shirkadaha hormuudka ah 'khadadka wax soo saarka balaayiin-mitir'' ay si aan kala joogsi lahayn u socdaan. Difaaca (fiyuuska nukliyeerka) iyo warshadaha aan duuliyaha lahayn ayaa sidoo kale la wareegaya tungsten carbide, oo leh saddexdan qaybood.iyada oo 40% ka ah baahida cusub- faaruqinta suuqyada habeenkii.

3. Xakamaynta Dhoofintu waxay dhalisaa wax kaydis caalami ah

Tungsten weyn - waddammada dhoofiya waxay soo saareen sharciyo "hal - ogolaansho - per - dalbashada". Cabsida yaraanta, iibsadayaasha dibaddabilaabay kaydinta 6 bilood ka hor, oo qiimaha caalamiga ah ku riixaya 13% ka sarreeya heerarka gudaha. Q1 2025, qiimaha dhoofinta tungsten carbide ayaa kor u kacay 45%, iyo amarada dibadda ayaa ka dhigay 35% iibka - baahida shisheeye ayaa ku dartay shidaal badan dabka.

III. Siciradu ma sii wadi doonaa kor u kaca? Sidee Shirkaduhu uga jawaabaan?

1. Gaaban - Muddada: Degganaanshiyo Sare sida Nusqaamaha

• Budada Cobalt: Mamnuucidda dhoofinta DRC waxay socon doontaa ilaa Q3 2025, taasoo abuuraysa 32,000 – tan faraq caalami ah. Qiimayaashu way is badbadali doonaan inta u dhaxaysa¥260–¥280/kg.
• Budada Tungsten Carbide: Iyada oo 15,000 - tan farqi u ah alaabta ceeriin iyo baahida ugu sarreysa ee sawirka, qiimayaasha ayaa tijaabin kara¥380/kg.

2. Dheer - Term: Tartan u dhexeeya raritaan iyo hal-abuurnimo

• CobaltShirkadaha ayaa u wareegaya wax soo saarka Indonesia (oo leh ciyaartoy sare oo hore u dhisay dhirta). Marka la gaaro 2026, awoodda cusub waxay yareyn kartaa cadaadiska saadka.
• Tungsten Carbide: iska ilaaliqalabka silikoon carbide goynta(oo horeba u bedelay 20% carbide tungsten). Shirkaduhu waa inay kor u qaadaan alaabada dhamaadka ah (tusaale, nano - grade tungsten carbide, taas oo kor u qaadaysa faa'iidada 50%).

3. Xeeladaha Badbaadada: Supply Supply + Tiknoolajiyada Casriyeynta

• Gaaban - MuddadaQuful sahayda qandaraasyada muddada dheer ah ama isticmaal mustaqbalka si aad u ilaaliso khatarta qiimaha.
• Long - TermMaalgelinta R & D ee alaabta dhamaadka-sare (tusaale, sare - kobalt daahirsan ee semiconductors, tungsten loogu talagalay fiyuuska nukliyeerka). Isticmaal tignoolajiyada si aad uga adkaato cadaadiska qiimaha.

Qiimahan sare u kaca waxa wadasiyaasadaha gobolka, baahida caalamiga ah, iyo ciyaaraha caasimadda. Shirkadaha adduunka oo dhan, guushu waxay ka dhigan tahay fahamka "sababta sahaydu u adag tahay" iyo "yaa wax badan iibsanaya" - ka dibna ha ahaato ilaalinta silsiladaha saadka ama dardargelinta hal-abuurka. Kaliya markaas ayay ku kori karaan duufaantan kheyraadka.